Uranium Futures Trading Basics

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Is Uranium A Dead Market? What You Need To Know About The Commodity In 2020

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Last Updated on September 9, 2020

Why is Uranium Valuable?

Uranium is a silvery-white metallic element that is malleable, ductile, very dense and naturally radioactive. Uranium has several important industrial applications, but its principle use is as a fissionable material (atoms that can be split apart to release energy) to produce nuclear fuel for electricity generation.

Miners worldwide extract about 62,000 metric tons of uranium annually. The quest for cleaner, more environmentally-friendly fuels has propelled the growth of the nuclear industry in electricity generation. As a result, uranium has become an increasingly valuable commodity in world markets.

How Did Uranium Usage Evolve?

Civilizations have used uranium compounds for centuries. Archaeologists found yellow glass with 1% uranium oxide in an ancient Roman villa near Naples, Italy. In the later Middle Ages, glassmakers used pitchblende extracted from silver mines to color glass. However, chemists didn’t formally isolate uranium as an element until the 19th century.

In 1789, Martin Heinrich Klaproth, a German chemist, discovered uranium oxide in the mineral pitchblende. Although he believed the compound contained a new element, he failed to produce uranium on its own.

Eugene Peligot via Wikimedia (Image is in the Public Domain USA)

In 1841, Eugène-Melchior Péligot, a French chemist, finally succeeded in isolating pure uranium.

In 1896, the most important scientific discovery related to uranium occurred. French physicist Antoine Henri Becquerel placed a small quantity of uranium on to an unexposed photographic plate, and the plate became cloudy. Becquerel deduced that invisible rays emitted from the uranium caused this phenomenon. Becquerel had serendipitously discovered radioactivity.

Beginning in 1934, physicist Enrico Fermi conducted experiments with uranium that led to the development of nuclear reactors and the beginning of the nuclear age.

The first modern use of uranium was in warfare. The United States was on the brink of war with Germany when Fermi and his team of scientists created the first nuclear reactor, known as an atomic pile. Fearful that the Germans might be developing their own bomb, US scientists hastened efforts to create a nuclear weapon.

Atomic Pile via Energy.gov on Wikimedia

Ultimately, these efforts led to the development of the first nuclear bomb used at Hiroshima, Japan during World War II. Soon thereafter, an escalating nuclear arms race ensued between the Soviet Union and the United States.

Atomic Cloud Over Hiroshima, Taken From Enola Gay Flying Over Matsuyama, Shikokuon via Wikipedia

However, after World War II, countries also began seeking peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In the early 1950s, American researchers successfully lit four light bulbs using nuclear power, and by 1957, the first nuclear power plant began operating in the United States.

In 1954, the world’s first nuclear reactor began producing power in Russia, and by the 1960s and 1970s, the nuclear power industry began to grow rapidly worldwide.

Until the early 1950s, the main global source of uranium was in the Belgian Congo. To meet the needs of the fast-growing nuclear power industry, more countries including the United States, Canada, France and Australia began developing uranium mines.

How is Uranium Produced?

Many natural minerals contain uranium including pitchblende, uraninite, carnotite, autunite, uranophane and tobernite. Phosphate rocks, lignite and monazite sands also contain the element.

Uranium Ore via Wikimedia

Uranium ores typically have very low yields of the element of between 0.1 to 0.2%, and some have concentrations lower than 0.05%. (The Canadian Saskatchewan mines are the exception and have yields of more than 20% uranium. However, flooding and environmental concerns make the future of mining in this region uncertain.)

Extracting uranium from the earth takes place using three methods:

  1. Open Pit Mining
  2. Underground Mining
  3. In-Situ Leaching

Open Pit Mining

This form of mining, also called strip-mining, involves using heavy machinery to remove soil and rocks at the surface of the earth and uncover valuable uranium ores just below the surface.

Open Pit Mining via Pixabay

Miners dump the surface materials, known as waste rock, near the open pit. They then dig a series of steps, known as benches, into the mine to facilitate removal of the uranium ores. Sometimes miners construct roads to allow hauling trucks easier access to ores or employ pumps to dewater the pit.

While open pit mining is less expensive than underground mining (see below), it produces a heavy toll on the environment. Open pit mines produce enormous and hazardous waste rocks, create groundwater contamination and expose miners and nearby populations to dust and radon gases.

Open pit mining usually produces ores with less than 0.5% uranium content, and the mining methods works only with minerals located less than 400 feet below the surface.

Underground Mining

Underground mines allow miners to retrieve ores that surface mines can’t reach. Miners drill into the ground and use controlled explosives to shatter the ore into debris. They then transport the ores to the surface.

Underground mines have a smaller environmental footprint than open pit mines and produce less waste rock. In addition, better ventilation systems and robotic mining techniques have improved the safety of newer underground mines.

Robotic Mining Equipment via COD Newsroom on Flickr

However, the method also has its drawbacks. Underground mining is expensive and can cause serious damage to local aquifers. As with surface mines, ore yields are typically less than 0.5% uranium.

After extraction, the ores from both open pit and underground mines require milling. Machines crush and pulverize the rocks into fine fragments. Processors first add water and then sulfuric acid or an alkaline solution to release uranium from the rocks. This produces uranium oxide (or yellow cake).

Another processing plant then enriches this uranium further to prepare it for industrial uses.

Typically milling allows recovery of 95 – 98% of the uranium residing in the rocks. Milling is the only effective method for extracting uranium from conventionally mined ores.

In-Situ Leaching

Some deposits of uranium lend themselves to a more environmentally-friendly method known as in-situ leaching. With this method, miners pump water with gaseous oxygen and (sometimes) sodium bicarbonate into injection wells at the site of uranium ores.

The method dissolves uranium from the rocks into the groundwater. Pumps then bring the uranium-rich water to the surface. Treatment plants then filter the water and remove the uranium.

Uranium In Situ Leach via US Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Wikimedia

In-situ leaching produces little waste rock and leaves a minimal environmental footprint. However, miners must monitor contamination of aquifers and ensure disposal of waste water.

In-situ leaching accounts for about 48% of all uranium mining, while open-pit and underground mining comprise about 47% of mining. The remaining 5% of mining occurs as a byproduct of other mining.

Top 10 Uranium Mining Countries

Rank Flag Country Metric tons
#1 Kazakhstan 24,575
#2 Canada 14,039
#3 Australia 6,315
#4 Niger 3,479
#5 Namibia 3,654
#6 Russia 3,004
#7 Uzbekistan 2,404
#8 China 1,616
#9 USA 1,125
#10 Ukraine 1,005

3 Main uses of Uranium

Uses Description
Nuclear Fuel

Uranium fuel used in nuclear reactors is enriched with uranium-235 , a naturally occurring fissionable fuel. This produces a chain reaction that generates heat, which can be used to create steam for turbines and electric power generation. Military

Uranium is used to powers nuclear submarines. It is also used to produce nuclear weapons. Depleted Uranium Applications

Depleted uranium contains much less uranium-235 than natural uranium. Depleted uranium is less radioactive than regular uranium and used in several applications:

Ship ballasts
Counterweights for aircraft
Ammunition
Armor

What Drives the Price of Uranium?

The price of uranium is driven mostly by these four factors:

  1. Nuclear Power Demand
  2. Global Supply Sources
  3. Global Inventories
  4. Macroeconomic Factors

Nuclear Power Demand

Demand for nuclear power in electricity generation is the biggest determinant of uranium prices.

As countries around the world seek cleaner alternative to fossil fuels, nuclear power use in electricity generation has gained greater acceptance. In France, for example, nuclear power accounts for more than three-quarters of electricity generation.

Nuclear Power Plant Cattenom, France via Stefan Kuhn on Wikimedia

However, many factors could increase or lower this demand. One factor is the cost of fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Increases in their cost make nuclear power generators more attractive, while decreases in their cost make nuclear power less attractive

Environmental considerations are another factor that could influence demand for nuclear power. More power companies have adopted nuclear power because it is perceived as a greener technology than burning fossil fuels. However, if accidents such as the Fukushima Incident in 2020 or the Three Mile Island reactor meltdown in 1979 occur again, then public attitudes toward nuclear power could sour.

Global Supply Sources

Decisions by a small group of uranium suppliers can have a significant impact on prices.

Three countries – Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia – provide about two-thirds of the annual supply of uranium. Kazakhstan alone provides about 40% of world output. Therefore, events in these countries can have a disproportionate impact on prices.

Production decisions by Kazatomprom, the state-owned production company in Kazakhstan or Cameco, the world’s second largest uranium miner located in Canada, can have a big effect on spot uranium prices. Just as OPEC decisions impact oil prices, decisions by a small group of uranium suppliers can impact the direction of uranium prices.

Global Inventories

Many utility companies hold inventories of uranium to buffer against disruptions of supply. Changes in the levels of these uranium inventories can impact the price of the commodity.

When uranium producers cut back on production, utility companies draw down on these stocks. This creates tight supplies and leads to higher prices. On the other hand, increases in production by uranium producers can lead to a build-up of inventories and lower prices.

Macroeconomic Factors

The health and strength of the overall economy can have a big impact on uranium prices.

Electricity demand is often correlated with a strong economy. When the economies of the world are strong, industries and consumers use more electricity. This increased demand requires a source of power to operate the turbines that power generators.

As long as nuclear power remains a growing source of power for electricity generation, uranium prices should benefit from strong economic growth.

3 Reasons You Might Invest in Uranium

In general, the best reason for investing in uranium is to bet on the growing energy needs of the world.

Specifically traders should consider a uranium investment for the following reasons:

  1. Increased Acceptance of Nuclear Energy as a Power Source
  2. Emerging Market Demand
  3. Portfolio Diversification

Increased Acceptance of Nuclear Energy as a Power Source

Since nuclear power is used primarily to produce electricity, its increasing acceptance by the power generating industry is the main reason traders should consider the commodity.

More than 30 countries host about 450 commercial nuclear power reactors with an installed capacity of about 400,000 megawatts electric (mWe). Sixteen countries depend on nuclear power for more than 25% of their electricity needs, and some countries such as France depend on nuclear power for about 75% of their needs.

Worldwide Nuclear Power Stations via Wikimedia

The price of uranium is likely to be influenced heavily by trends in nuclear power usage for electricity generation. The World Nuclear Association projects a 30% increase in electricity generation from nuclear power by 2030 and a 35% increase by 2035. These trends bode well for uranium prices.

Emerging Market Demand

According to the International Energy Agency, by 2035 more than 90% of net energy demand will derive from emerging economies.

Demographic trends across the globe show migration patterns from rural areas into cities. In places such as China, rising industrialization has accompanied these population shifts.

Power Plant Tianjin, China via Shubert Ciencia on Wikimedia

The United Nations forecasts that by 2030, there could be a 36% increase in the number of global cities with populations over 1 million people. New cities will require increasing amounts of electricity to power businesses and homes. As more countries seek to curb pollution while meeting energy demand, nuclear power demand could grow.

Portfolio Diversification

Investing in a critical resource such as uranium is a way to add diversification to a portfolio. Many of the factors that move demand for nuclear power are different than the factors that affect stock and bond prices. In fact, for many segments of the economy, demand for electricity is inelastic. As long as this remains the case, demand for uranium in power generation should remain strong.

Should I Invest in Uranium?

Traders who want to invest in uranium should consider purchasing the commodity along with a basket of other commodities that includes base metals (i.e., copper, lead, nickel and zinc), precious metals, agricultural commodities (i.e., dairy, meats and grains) and other energy commodities such as oil, natural gas and electricity.

Purchasing a basket of commodities helps protect traders from the volatility of any individual commodity. It also adds overall diversification to a stock and bond portfolio.

There are three reasons uranium prices could perform well in the years ahead:

  1. Emerging Market Growth
  2. Environmental Concerns
  3. Global Growth

Emerging Market Growth

China, India, Brazil, the Middle East and Africa are among the many fast-growing countries and regions that are becoming more industrial and urban. As populations in these regions migrate from rural areas into cities, demand for power should soar.

Environmental Concerns

As the global economy expands, pollution is becoming a greater problem. This should benefit cleaner power sources such as nuclear energy.

Global Growth

Global growth is a positive catalyst for uranium prices. As the world economy expands, demand for power should grow, and uranium prices should respond favorably.

However, traders should also consider the risks of investing in uranium:

  1. A global recession could weaken power demand.
  2. Lower coal and natural gas prices could slow down the adoption of nuclear energy by power companies.
  3. Another nuclear reactor accident could be a serious setback to the uranium industry.
    Global economic or political turmoil could strengthen the US dollar and weaken demand for commodities.

Expert Opinions on Uranium

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about uranium prices. Since the Fukushima accident in 2020 led Japan to shutter all its nuclear reactors, uranium prices have been in freefall. However, analysts believe that pessimism may have gone too far:

One analyst sees supply cuts by leading producers as a catalyst for higher prices:

“(The output cuts) sends a strong message to utilities that future supplies are by no means guaranteed at current uranium prices.”

BMO analyst Alexander Pearce

Another analyst concurs and believes the supply cuts could surprise the market:

“This is the type of supply shock that will spur strength in the spot price.”

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Rob Chang

How Can I Invest in Uranium?

Uranium traders have several ways to invest in the commodity:

Method of Investing Complexity Rating (1 = easy, 5=hard) Storage Costs? Security Costs? Expiration Dates? Management Costs? Leverage? Regulated Exchange?
Uranium Futures 5 N N Y N Y Y
Uranium Options N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Uranium ETFs 2 N N N Y N Y
Uranium Shares 2 N N N N Y Y
Uranium CFDs 3 N N N N Y Y

Uranium Futures

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offers a contract on U308 (triuranium octoxide), the form in which uranium is mostly found in nature. The contract settles into 250 pounds of U308.

The contract trades globally on the CME Globex platform and has various expiration months.

Futures are a derivative instrument through which traders make leveraged bets on commodity prices. If prices decline, traders must deposit additional margin in order to maintain their positions. At expiration, all of these contracts are financially settled.

Investing in futures requires a high level of sophistication since factors such as storage costs and interest rates affect pricing.

Uranium ETFs

These financial instruments trade as shares on exchanges in the same way that stocks do. Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA: URA) invests in a basket of uranium miners. In addition, VanEck Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: NLR) invests in both uranium mining and nuclear energy companies.

Uranium Futures Trading Basics

A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at or before a given date in the future, at a price agreed upon today. While the term “commodity” is usually used when referring to contracts like corn, or silver, it is also defined to include financial instruments and stock indexes. One of the benefits to the futures industry is that contracts are traded on an organized and regulated exchange to provide the facilities to buyers and sellers.

Exchange-traded futures provide several important economic benefits, but one of the most important is the ability to transfer or manage the price risk of commodities and financial instruments. A simple example would be a baker who is concerned with a price increase in wheat, could hedge his risk by buying a futures contract in wheat.

Not all futures contracts provide for physical delivery, some call for an eventual cash settlement. In most cases, the obligation to buy or sell is offset by liquidating the position. For example, if you buy 1 S&P500 e-mini contract, you would simply sell 1 S&P500 e-mini contract to offset the position. The profit or loss from the trade is the difference between the buy and sell price, less transaction costs. Gains and losses on futures contracts are calculated on a daily basis and reflected on the brokerage statement each night. This process is known as daily cash settlement.

US futures trading is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA). The CFTC is an independent federal agency based in Washington, DC that adopts and enforces regulations under the Commodity Exchange Act and monitors industry self-regulatory organizations. The NFA, whose principal office is in Chicago, is an industry-wide self-regulatory organization whose programs include registration of industry professionals, auditing of certain registrants, and arbitration.

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If you are new to futures trading, be sure to check out our tips for futures traders & watch our FAQ video below. Get answers to common questions such as the role of commission in overall trading costs and learn how leverage can impact margin requirements.

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The Basics of Trading Crude Oil Futures

Hero Images / Getty Images

Crude oil is one of the better commodities on which to trade futures contracts. The market is incredibly active, and it is well known to traders around the world. Oil prices fluctuate on the faintest whisper of news regarding pricing, which makes it a favorite of swing and day traders looking for an edge.

This volatile environment can provide some solid trading opportunities, whether your focus is on day trading futures or you are a longer-term trader. It may also provide great losses if you are on the wrong side of a price movement.

Crude oil is also one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.   The price of crude oil affects the price of many other commodities, including gasoline and natural gas. However, the ripple effect of crude oil prices also impacts the price of stocks, bonds, and currencies around the globe. 

Crude oil remains a major source of energy for the world, despite increased interest in the renewable energy sector. 

Crude Oil Contract Specs

Trading crude can be confusing when you first get into it, and you should memorize these specifications before you consider beginning to trade. 

  • Ticker symbol: CL
  • Exchange: NYMEX
  • Trading hours: 9:00 a.m.–2:30 p.m. ET
  • Contract size: 1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons).
  • Contract months: All months (Jan.–Dec.)
  • Price quote: Price per barrel (example: $65.50 per barrel)
  • Tick size: $0.01 per barrel ($10.00 per contract)
  • Last trading day: Third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month

Traders are also advised to understand the futures market. When you trade a futures contract you have the obligation to either buy or sell—call or put—the commodity by the expiration date at the stated price. If you hold a call, the only way to avoid actually having to take physical delivery of 10,000 barrels of crude oil is to offset the trade before the expiration. Trading futures is not for the novice. 

Crude Oil Fundamentals

Despite using it every day, not many people know the differences between crude oil and gasoline. Crude is the raw material that is refined to produce gasoline, heating oil, diesel, jet fuel, and many other petrochemicals. The fundamentals are different since it is a raw product. Crude also comes in many different grades. 

Light Sweet Crude Oil is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). “Light Sweet” is the most popular grade of crude oil being traded because it is the easiest to distill into other products. 

Another grade of oil is Brent Blend Crude, which is primarily traded in London and is seeing increased interest. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are the world’s three largest oil producers as of 2020.   Brent is the most widely used benchmark for determining gasoline prices. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is crude from U.S. wells. The product is light and sweet and ideal for gasoline. It trades under the CL ticker on the Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) and the NYMEX

Middle Eastern crude is known as Dubai and Oman oil. It has a higher sulfur content and falls into the category of heavy, sour oil. The Dubai Mercantile Exchange offers futures for this crude.

When crude oil is refined or processed, it takes about three barrels of oil to produce two barrels of unleaded gas and one barrel of heating oil.   This helps to put into perspective the production needs of crude, and why production and supply levels are watched so closely.

Crude Oil Reports

The main reports for crude oil are found in the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Energy Stocks report. This report is released every Wednesday around 1:00 p.m. ET, with traders eagerly awaiting its arrival. 

Tips on Trading Crude Oil Futures

Oil futures are notorious for their volatility. Here are some quick tips that you should look for when tracking price movement and making trades:

  • The price of unleaded gas and heating oil can influence the price of crude oil.
  • Demand is generally highest during the summer and winter months. Very hot summer or very active driving season (for summer vacations) can increase the demand for crude oil and cause prices to move higher.
  • An extremely cold winter causes a higher demand for heating oil, which is made from crude oil. This usually causes prices to move higher. Watch the weather in the Northeast, since it’s the part of the country that uses heating oil more than any other.
  • Watch for oil production cuts or increases from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), which determines global supply and demand for crude. 

Volatile Market for Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil often trades in a volatile environment. Major news events can happen overnight, causing oil prices to swing unpredictably and widely. The same thing can happen throughout the day since crude futures trade around the clock. Whether it’s an economic report or tensions in the Middle East, a tight supply situation can exacerbate price movement. 

Supply and demand obviously dictate how the price will move, but this market moves on emotion as well, especially with retail investors who day trade.

If tensions escalate in the Middle East, there’s no telling the extent of possible supply disruptions, and traders often react swiftly on the news, adjusting their strategy following price fluctuations.

Price Movements for Crude Oil

The reason prices move so swiftly is that traders who have short positions in the market tend to cover their shorts quickly if price creeps up, either eroding their gains or causing losses. In order to do this, they have to place buy orders to cover. This wave of buying is done at the same time speculators are jumping on board to establish or add to long positions. The shorts will cover quickly because the risk is just too great; if a major development arose that disrupted supply, shorts could theoretically lose more money than they invested, resulting in a margin call from their brokerage, one of the most dreaded calls in the world of investors.

The usual tendency is for oil prices to spike on news of turmoil in the Middle East. Then prices calm down and start to move lower unless there’s irrefutable evidence of major supply disruptions. Identifying these waves of buying and selling is very important if you want to avoid getting a haircut in the financial markets.

For the most part, crude oil tends to be a trending market, driven largely by psychological movement. There’s usually a major bias to the upside or downside. Trading from the trending side will certainly help improve your odds of success. Crude oil also tends to get stuck in prolonged ranges after a sizable move. A person who can identify these ranges has plenty of opportunities to buy at the low end and sell at the high end. Some investors trade the ranges until there’s a clear breakout either way.

The value of the U.S. dollar is a major component in the price of oil. A higher dollar puts pressure on oil prices.   A lower dollar helps support higher oil prices. Crude oil also tends to move closely with the stock market. A growing economy and stock market tend to support higher oil prices. However, oil prices moving too high can stifle the economy. Historically, oil prices tend to move opposite the stock market. This trend becomes a concern when oil prices approach the psychological price marker of $100 a barrel.

Day Trading Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil is one of the favorite markets of futures day traders. The market typically reacts very well to pivot points and support and resistance levels. You have to make sure you use stops orders in this market. Stop orders are automatically triggered trades that can help reduce the high risk of a market that can make very swift runs—up or down—at any given time.   Longtime energy trader Mark Fisher wrote an excellent book on day trading oil futures titled The Logical Trader.

There’s no shortage of trading opportunities. Most traders close their position end-of-day (EOD) to ensure they sleep at night, considering overnight volatility.

Many of the same principles that apply to stock index futures also apply to crude oil futures. If you like trading the E-mini S&P, you’ll probably like crude oil, too.

Crude oil entered a bear market in June 2020 when the price was just under $108 per barrel on the active month NYMEX crude oil futures contract. By February 2020, the price depreciated to under $30 per barrel. In January 2020, the price was trending around $53.84 per barrel for WTI Crude. As of December 27 2020, the price is on the rise at $61.72 per barrel. 

The Balance does not provide tax, investment, or financial services and advice. The information is being presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal.

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