Review Gain Trend is Another Risky Investment

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Обзор валютного рынка для эффективной торговли. trend is your friend

Европейская валюта находится пока в восходящем тренде, но долгосрочная тенденция на месячном графике, начавшаяся в 2008 году, все же двигается вниз. Причем движения от верхней границы этого нисходящего канала являются импульсными и достигают нижнего порога гораздо быстрее, нежели при росте верхней. Так как евро сейчас находится вблизи верхней границы канала, было бы интересно занять долгосрочную позицию в продажу, тем более что SWAP по EUR/USD в шорт положительный. В связи с чем коррекция к уровню 1.2150 будет отличной возможностью для входа в долгосрочную сделку в продажу. Тем временем, вход на H1 выше Up-фрактала и вчера доказал свою эффективность. Сегодня сценарий следующий:

Британская валюта остановила свое падение вблизи уровня поддержки 1.3550 и сейчас незначительно корректируется. К сожалению, вчера фунт не дал возможности зайти в селл, т.к. предыдущие фракталы находились слишком высоко, сегодня есть возможность зайти выше High 11 часовой свечи, если он не будет переписан 13-часовой свечой:

По CAD/USD и USD/JPY сделки сработали. Подробнее смотрите в видео:

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Markets run away from risks; demand for protective assets is trending

Craving towards defensive assets and currencies remains the main trend in the markets. The Japanese yen on Monday rose to 105.04 per dollar, bringing growth from the beginning of the month to 3.5%. Swiss franc and gold also in demand, adding 2.5% and 7.2%, respectively.

Among the main reasons for the flight from risky assets are the growing tension around the riots in Hong Kong and the unexpected defeat of the current President of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, at the preliminary stage of the election. The news hit Monday the national stock markets and sent the Argentine peso 15% down. The picture is supplemented by fears of rejection of market reforms and a possible extension of default on the country’s debts.


The Hang Seng Index lost 2.3% on Monday, dropping to 25300 and continuing to advance to the lows during the previous peak of market fears in October-December last year. S & P500 lost 1.4%, stopping at 2880 and failing to develop a rebound. Today in the morning the indices remain close to the lows reached the day before. Markets are stable, but the current pause in easing remains very tense.


British pound fell on Monday until 1.2020, which is one step from the lows after Brexit at 1.1980. The British currency has lost 4% since the end of July, as the statements of the new Prime Minister Johnson and his ministers appointed reinforced concerns around Brexit without a deal. The pound seems to have approached the edge and is capable of an uncontrolled fall below 1.20 in the case of new careless wording of officials. At the same time, from the technical analysis side, the British currency looks oversold, which makes it attractive for long-term investors who can quickly connect to purchases on the understanding that the worst case scenario is already in the quotes.


Levels of about 105 yen per dollar is an area of ​​extremes where the pair fell through briefly in March last year. Then this was facilitated by the weakening of the American currency, and this time – a craving for protective assets. Year and a half ago Bank of Japan spoke negatively regarding the growth of the yen. It is likely that this time too we can witness how the rhetoric of the Bank of Japan or the government regarding the exchange rate is changing. However, the current mark of 105 yen per dollar is a kind of intermediate stage, while more stringent resistance to the growth of the exchange rate by the Ministry of Finance or the Bank of Japan is unlikely to be expected earlier than at the approach to 100 – the psychologically important level, where the pair has been unfolding since 2020.

Market analysis using the Ichimoku indicator. Full trading strategy in Fortrader Magazine

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With Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeting and many projects shuttering, 2020 was a year of reckoning for blockchain. But in 2020, it’s showing signs of a rebound. We take a data-driven look at major investment trends and where the space might go from here.

In 2008, at the height of the Great Recession, Bitcoin’s anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a “peer-to-peer transfer of virtual cash that would allow online payments.” One year later, the first Bitcoin block was mined.

Fast-forward to today: the blockchain space has gone through several hype cycles.

The run-up that culminated in December 2020 sent the price of Bitcoin to a peak of nearly $20,000. Meanwhile, an unprecedented ICO boom meant blockchain startups had tremendous access to capital. Even traditional VCs swooped into token sales and added to the fervor.

Then 2020 proved to be a year of reckoning. The price of Bitcoin and Ethereum fell back to Earth in a matter of months. Many projects went sideways or shuttered.

But so far in 2020, the blockchain space has rebounded somewhat. Total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has doubled since January 2020 (though it still only amounts to roughly one-third of where it was at the peak). Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal declared “the ICO market is dead” due to the SEC’s more aggressive stance against token offerings.

So where does the space go from here?

With a data-driven look at venture, corporate, and initial coin offering investment trends, this report explores how various forces have shaped the current blockchain landscape and offers some insights into the space’s immediate future.

Report highlights


  • VC funding trends
  • Corporate funding
  • VC investor trends
  • Well-funded companies
  • ICOs and direct crypto investment


  • VC investment into the space has seriously declined in 2020. At current run rates, 2020 will only see $1.6B invested across 454 deals, a significant decline from the $4.1B invested in blockchain last year.
  • Corporate participation is also on a sharp decline.
  • A growing share of equity deals are going to early-stage startups, suggesting the space is far from mature.
  • Digital Currency Group, Boost VC, and Blockchain Capital have led the space in investments over the past 5 years.

The state of icos & tokens

  • Initial coin offerings are dead, and have been out-funded by VC for 4 straight quarters. While both types of funding are on the decline, VC has eclipsed ICOs.
  • Yet, speculation and overall market confidence seems to have rebounded. Market capitalizations of tokens and cryptocurrencies suggest renewed interest in the space post-crash.

Looking ahead

  • Market uncertainty is high, but new developments — such as FB Libra — have given the space a second wind. Mike Novogratz, founder of the crypto hedge fund Galaxy Digital, cited the new corporate interest in Project Libra as a major catalyst in the latest price spike. A prominent economist recently said crypto is “here to stay.” However, funding for startups from corporates is still on the decline.
  • Even with funding down, recent corporate interest could be a good omen for blockchain startups. The specific knowledge of blockchain can rarely be found in-house and will be needed as the space institutionalizes.

Venture investing has shifted over time. VCs first backed companies exploring bitcoin as currency, then focused on private blockchain providers catering to financial services and other verticals. Today they’re investing in the token economy.

Ongoing challenges in the sector include cryptocurrency price volatility and regulatory setbacks — such as SEC litigation against Kik, and New York’s stringent BitLicense — as well as scaling issues that limit transaction speed (these particularly hamper Bitcoin and Ethereum).

With Q2’19 at a close, we’re only on track to see $1.6B invested across 454 deals this year, which will be a serious decline from the $4.1B invested in blockchain last year.

However, 2020’s equity investment will likely surpass the totals seen in 2020, when there were fewer companies and arguably less bubble mania driving private deals.

Note: Blockchain deals included here are traditional equity financing, and may omit purchased stakes in token sales.

Taking a closer look at deal share by stage, traditional equity investment to the sector is increasingly going to early-stage startups, with seed/angel and Series A equity deals jumping from 80% in 2020 to 88% in 2020 YTD.

Meanwhile the proportion of mid-stage deals (Series B and C) has held relatively consistent, while later-stage deals (Series D and later) are nearly absent.

This growing share of early-stage deals suggests that blockchain is still a very nascent category. When emerging tech areas mature, Series A and B will often swell as a share of the total deals. But so far, there’s no indication of that happening yet.

Finally, in terms of geography, the United States is home to 40% of equity financings. Behind it are China (15%), the UK (8%), Singapore (4%), and South Korea (3%). Asia has proven to be a hotbed for startups, and China is home to several of the most well-funded blockchain companies worldwide (more on that below).

Corporate funding

Corporate participation in blockchain also declined to a significant degree. So far there have been only 96 corporate deals in 2020. At current run rates, corporate deals will be down 36% from the 302 deals seen in 2020.

Reflecting the funding skew, many of the names topping the most active investors list are blockchain-friendly early-stage investors. Topping the most active list are crypto-only investing firms such as Digital Currency Group, Pantera, and Polychain, frontier tech accelerators (Boost VC at #2), and VC firms with specialized blockchain practices (a16z).

In the top spot is Digital Currency Group, which was early to investing in the blockchain space. The firm has backed 4 companies in 2020 so far, including a $65M Series B to Figure Technologies. Its other 2020 deals include rounds to Livepeer, DeFi provider Staked, and crypto futures exchange CoinFLEX.

Boost VC, the frontier tech accelerator led by Adam Draper, has invested in nearly 50 blockchain companies over the past 5 years. Recent bets include the decentralized DNS service Unstoppable Domains, prediction marketplace Guesser, and crypto on-ramp Amun.

Blockchain Capital, also one of the oldest blockchain VCs, comes in at third most active.

A host of China-based blockchain investors have moved aggressively into the space. Febushi Capital, for instance, has invested in more blockchain companies in the last 5 years than industry stalwarts such as Pantera and Polychain.

Note: Blockchain deals included here are traditional VC and may omit purchased stakes in token sales.

One interesting name here is the mining giant Bitmain, which is the second most well-funded blockchain company behind Coinbase (and the largest within China) with $450M of capital raised. Bitmain had been eyeing a 2020 IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but reports of difficulties and losses from decreased demand resulted in its IPO application expiring.

Previously, we looked at where smart money VCs invested in blockchain, and found that many top investors were still placing bets throughout the “crypto winter” of 2020.

Well-Funded companies

Looking at the most well-funded companies in the space, many are exchanges or provide infrastructure tech.

The company with the most funding is Coinbase, which last raised a $300M Series E in October 2020. Bitmain, the China-based mining firm, follows with $450M raised. In third place is tZero, the crypto arm of that specializes in DLTs for fintech purposes. tZero has raised $324M in private equity from GSR Capital.

Also notably appearing is Bakkt, the crypto exchange backed by ICE (parent of the New York Stock Exchange). The company is awaiting CFTC licenses to trade bitcoin futures, and was recently beat to approval by LedgerX.

A number of the most well-funded companies raised mega-rounds in 2020, including Circle‘s $110M Series E (General Catalyst) and Dfinity‘s $102M mega-round (Andreessen Horowitz).

The state of ICOs and tokens

Since the launch of bitcoin, the blockchain space has operated outside the traditional channels of finance. Bitcoin remains bootstrapped and completely peer-to-peer. Likewise, the ICO boom raised billions for blockchain projects through token sales, circumventing VCs and crowdfunding sites altogether (further reading on that here).

Interestingly, the tide has now turned: VC now accounts for much more than ICO funding, marking an end of the ICO era.

ICOs and direct crypto investment

Traditional equity financing has outstripped ICOs in every quarter since Q3’18. With ICOs all but dead, equity financings have accounted for far more funding than ICOs in 2020. Broadly, however, it’s worth noting that both ICOs and VC funding are on a serious decline, with Q2’19 representing the lowest totals since early 2020.

However, given the recent spike in coin market capitalization, it seems unlikely that the space is dead. Traditional venture capital is now seen as a signal of quality, especially coming from smart money investors.

And in the world of tokens and cryptocurrencies, confidence is rebuilding and more money is entering the asset class.

Looking ahead

In 2020, blockchain has its share of uncertainty, but there’s also an undercurrent of cautious optimism.

Yes, the ICO era is near dead. VC is retreating from exuberant highs. Tokens and cryptocurrencies are at a fraction of their peak market caps.

But keystone currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen speculation and volume surge in recent months. The space has also seen a resurgence in corporate interest, with recent moves from blue-chip names like Facebook, JP Morgan, and Visa.

newfound Optimism

Much of the recent enthusiasm is likely due to Facebook’s big splash with the Libra stablecoin. The project aims to be something closer to Venmo than a new Bitcoin, and plans to provide unbanked customers around the world with access to a stable currency.

Facebook signed on an impressive roster to Project Libra, with partners from the worlds of payments, ride-hailing, e-commerce, VCs, and blockchain startups.

In payments, the company snagged both Visa and Mastercard, among other major names. Blockchain smart money VCs, such as USV and Andreessen Horowitz, are backers. Major telecoms Iliad and Vodaphone are also involved, both of which are Europe-based.

Bitcoin-only exchange Xapo signed onto the project with a rare endorsement, alongside well-funded crypto startups Coinbase, Anchorage, and Bison Trails.

High-profile tech companies like Stripe, PayPal, Lyft, Uber, and Spotify also joined.

The project already seems to be encountering some legal snags and regulatory scrutiny (including negative tweets from the President), but the corporate interest is a huge vote of confidence for the blockchain space.

Mike Novogratz, founder of the crypto hedge fund Galaxy Digital, said Facebook’s plans were part of the recent bitcoin uptick: “[Investors] got excited because of Facebook. They got excited because of Uber and Mastercard and Visa saying ‘we want to participate in the cryptocurrency world.’” He added that the whole project “completely legitimizes the idea of cryptocurrencies.”

Additionally, Tyler Cowen of Bloomberg recently broke from many high-profile economists and wrote that, “cryptocurrency is (probably) here to stay.” Cowen suggested that cryptocurrencies offer a Flight-to-safety asset amidst political instability, trade war turmoil, and future wealth taxes.

For all these reasons and more, the blockchain space seems to have gotten a second wind.

This is likely good news for startups as well. Because the space is highly technical, startups are well-positioned to help large corporations and institutions enter the field. The concept of blockchain is only 10 years old, likely tilting the scale towards M&A when corporates are deciding to “build versus buy.”

Whether that newfound optimism will translate to a noticeable rebound in VC will be worth watching in 2020.

This report was created with data from CB Insights’ emerging technology insights platform, which offers clarity into emerging tech and new business strategies through tools like:

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  • Patent Analytics to see where innovation is happening next
  • Company Mosaic Scores to evaluate startup health, based on our National Science Foundation-backed algorithm
  • Business Relationshipsto quickly see a company’s competitors, partners, and more
  • Market Sizing Toolsto visualize market growth and spot the next big opportunity

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