Drawdowns in trading why and what to do

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Becoming a Better Trader – How to Handle a Drawdown

In this webinar, we discussed the inevitable drawdown (in fact, your account spends a large swath of time underwater), and how to handle both the ‘normal’ variety which occur regularly, and more importantly, the ones which fall under the ‘problematic’ category.

We understand the difficulties of trading, which is why we’ve put together a variety of guides designed to help traders of all experience levels.

Drawdowns are a natural part of trading…

Part of trading is losing, that’s just a fact that everyone must accept straight away. So, naturally, experiencing drawdowns is also going to be a fact of the business one must accept. As you can see below, a trader spends a large amount of time in a drawdown, even during extended periods of profitability.

A lot of time is spent drawing down even during periods of profitability

Difference between a ‘normal’ and ‘problematic’ drawdown

There are a couple of different types of drawdowns – ‘normal’ and the menacing ones considered to be ‘problematic’. A normal drawdown is one which results from the ebb and flow of trading and a function of the business. During these periods your losses are well controlled and it doesn’t take much to return to setting a new high in your account balance. These are not to be overly concerned with as long as you are doing what is right according to your trading plan.

But these can turn problematic, where the losses begin to pile up to the point of causing distress. These are almost always a result of poor trading behavior. It is during these times that is it becomes extremely important in how one handles the drawdown, as serious mistakes mount into damaging losses of both actual and mental capital.

Whether you are a new trader building a foundation or an experienced trader struggling (happens to the best), here are 4 ideas for Building Confidence in Trading

Handling ‘normal’ drawdowns

First off, drawdowns are a simply a function of probabilities and an uneven expectation in returns. Results tend to cluster. For example, you could have a 50%-win rate, but that doesn’t mean you won’t run into a string of losers over time just as you will run into a string of winners. It’s just as a result of probabilities, clustering (think of flipping a coin).

Then there are other manageable drawdowns which stem from other areas such as game-plan execution and market conditions. Handling a drawdown really boils down to understanding that you might not be trading particularly well or that market conditions may not be conducive for your strategy, and that you may need to lay off a bit. For example, a trader trying to trade breakouts during a range-bound market will struggle and need to acknowledge this by taking a step back. Often times, drawdowns involve a combination of difficult trading conditions and minor errors.

In any event, we can’t be perfect and is fine as long as you recognize and acknowledge (self-awareness) the situation. It’s always a prudent decision to reduce your trading size if uncomfortable with what is happening. The old saying, “when in doubt, get out”, is always applicable to trading. Having the discipline to stick to this principle, alone, can go a long way towards halting a drawdown. This is a good time to check yourself and see if you are taking proper trades and handling risk appropriately. Whether you are trading well or poorly, it is a good idea to consistently review your trading and make sure you are acting in accordance to what you set out to do.

One of the most common and clear-cut reasons for poor results is over-trading and poor risk management . Those are the first two areas to begin taking a look at when things aren’t going your way, because these you have control over and can be remedied right away.

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Bottom line, it’s important to have self awareness as to what is driving your trading results and then address any issues which might need to be handled.

Handling ‘problematic’ drawdowns

When the losses get uncomfortable, ‘out of control’ so to speak – this is when you have to take extra care as this is when a drawdown has gone from the ‘normal’ to ‘problematic’ category. The last thing you want to do is compound an already difficult situation, so the very first thing to do when you recognize that you’ve taken it too far is to ‘get out of the fire’ . Stop trading for a period of time, a few days or longer if need be (weekends don’t count).

Closing out existing positions and taking a little time off will not only stop the bleeding, but do your psyche wonders. Even though the losses are still there, this first step will help bring immediate relief. It can be difficult to do the first time around, but once you do it you will recognize later on when to do it sooner and thank yourself for having the discipline to walk away and stop fighting. This is one of those times where working harder will work against you.

Once you’ve had some time to recuperate, then start looking at what actions got you into a sticky position in the first place. You will likely already have an idea as to what got there, but looking at your trade history, journal, and any other records of your trading will help you identify most accurately what went wrong. Often times, it boils down to poor risk management and over-trading. That is, trading with too much size, poor risk/reward, and taking too many low-quality trade set-ups.

Once you’ve identified the culprit (often times more than one), and have a fix in place, you should resume trading with minimal size; trading with no more than 50% of max size, 25% or less is even better. The idea here is not to make back all your losses at once, but to restore your confidence and get moving in the right direction.

Reducing the risk of a drawdown, preventing problematic ones

Obviously, we want to avoid material drawdowns as much as possible, but how is this possible? We can’t control market conditions, but we can control our own process of trading. We’ve talked about this at length before, but utilizing a checklist , whether mental or physical, can be an excellent way to keep you on track to making those trades which fit within your game-plan . Tighter risk management parameters will obviously mean it will take longer for losses to pile up. Bottom line, we have to be vigilant about taking only those trades within our game-plan and doing so with risk we can handle.

If you are experiencing a personal issue, it’s a good idea to lay low until you’ve resolved those matters. We all have things going on in our lives from time to time, acknowledging that the market isn’t the place to look for solace will prevent you from compounding an already difficult situation. Step away, resolve your other issues first. Remember, the market will always be there when you’re ready to return.

For the full conversation , please see the video above…

Enjoy the video? Join Paul or any of the team’s analysts live each week for webinars covering analysis, fundamental events, and education.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

Drawdowns in trading: why and what to do?

Do you know what distinguishes good traders from bad traders? It is the ability to get back on track after a really bad losing period. In this article, I would like to show you 8 simple tips to recovering from a drawdown like a trading professional! Those tips will help you survive and recover from a bad period. Next time you are having a tough time you won’t just blame the strategy, markets, broker, or yourself. You will know EXACTLY what to do and you will follow these tips to get into profitability again.

Tip 1: Go through your journal notes

I know I said it many times and I may sound like a broken record, but having a solid trading journal with notes is really important. It’s important because when something goes wrong, you can look into your notes and you will usually be able to identify what you were doing wrong.

A few days ago I received an email from a member of my trading course. He wanted to improve his trading and he sent me his trading journal where he marked all his trades along with brief comments. Within just a few minutes I was able to see where the problem was. Btw. he was trading around the news – so I recommended that he start using the FX Squawk service and be more careful with avoiding the news. Apart from the news, everything seemed more or less fine.

I also need to say that the member himself was able to pinpoint his problem using his notes. He was just asking me for my opinion and for confirmation.

That’s what I call a job well done. You have a proper journal and then when a problem occurs, you go through your notes and you work on your weak spots. That’s the way to go.

Needless to say that without a journal, traders in this situation are left clueless, not knowing what happened and what to do.

Tip 2: Go through screenshots of your trades

I think it is really useful to take screenshots of your trades and then to go through them from time to time. Making a screenshot takes literally no more than a minute. If you want to write some short commentary it takes max 3 minutes. Many people don’t do this, and yet, screenshots are so helpful! Especially when you’re in a drawdown, and you need to see what is wrong. Screenshots are really helpful because you look at them and you immediately see the whole picture. It doesn’t take much time or effort to go through let’s say 30 screenshots. Still, a 30 minute period in which you go through screenshots of your trades can really be an eye-opener.

If your strategy took a beating, I suggest you go through your screenshots and focus on two things:

1. Focus on things that you did right and that worked. In other words – notice how you were trading and what trades you took when all went fine. Write down the things that you did right – this is really important – to focus on the positive things, not just the negatives. In the future try to do those things that you did right purposefully again and again.

For example: Imagine you held your position until it hit your full Profit Target even though you were tempted to close it sooner. That’s great! Write it down and next time do it too.

2. Focus on your bad trades and try to find mistakes. Sometimes there will be trades that were just fine and still ended up as losers – don’t worry about those. What you should look for is trades which ended up as losers because of some mistake you made. Write down those mistakes and avoid doing them in the future.

For example: Are you a gambler and you hold your trades during macro news releases? Then go through your trades and see how much that costs you! Write it down and never trade the news again.

Tip 3: Trade only your best performing instrument

When things turn south you really need to focus on what works best. This way you will be able to regain confidence and also recover from your losses. To be able to tell what your best performing instrument is, you need to keep good statistics (surprise!). For me, the best one is the EUR/USD. I think it works so nicely because it is the most liquid forex pair.

My friend and a member of my trading course Ziggy wrote a really helpful article recently. In his article, he presented a method that focuses solely on trading the EUR/USD. It is very interesting and I recommend you read it here: Set & Forget EUR/USD Strategy.

Tip 4: Lower your positions

Has it ever happened to you that you were in a drawdown so big that you were afraid to place more trades? I bet it has. It happened to many traders – myself included. In trading, it is essential that you feel comfortable even when taking losses. Being afraid to enter a trade is certainly not very comfortable. In a case like that, you need to trade smaller position sizes so you feel comfortable and not afraid to open another trade. This way, you will regain your confidence and you will slowly start digging out of the drawdown. You can start using normal positions when you feel confident and comfortable again.

Below is a screenshot from my new Volume Profile Book that shows you what digging out of a drawdown using smaller positions might look like:

Tip 5: Don’t stop trading

When a trader takes a beating and he is afraid to enter new trades, then it feels quite natural that he wants to have some rest. It sounds logical, but this is what usually happens:

1. The market conditions change and the market plays in favor of his strategy. The trader misses a lot of winning trades. That’s Murphy’s law and it works perfectly in trading.

2. After his rest, the trader feels okay and he takes his first trade. Guess what? A loss and he is back where he was before the pause. He is afraid again to take another trade!

Does this sound familiar? If you really feel you need a rest after you took a beating, then have it, by all means. But don’t jump into trading with full positions right after that. Lower your volumes and get back to full positions only when you really feel confident and back on track again. This way you won’t feel discouraged immediately if things don’t go the way you expected.

Tip 6: Don’t look at the scoreboard

The most frustrated and un-focused traders are the ones who look at their equity and trade results too often. What should really matter most is the perfect execution of the next trade. There is a little trick I invented. The trick is to set your profit/loss column in your trading software to show only the pip count and not nominal win/loss (USD or any other currency you use). This way you won’t get distracted or overwhelmed by how much money you are up or down., you will only see the number of pips.

This way, you will be much calmer and it will be significantly easier for you to follow your trading plan. After some time it will start to feel almost as if you were trading a demo! And that’s what you want. You want to feel calm, relaxed and clear headed. Looking constantly at your scoreboard to see how much USD you are currently up or down doesn’t really help.

You can use this method all the time but where it shines the most is when you struggle. When you struggle you start to fear to take the next trade and you fear to lose more money. Looking at the pip count instead of the nominal value takes a big chunk of stress off your shoulders and it helps to think clearly.

Tip 7: Don’t jump from strategy to strategy

I found out that majority of problems the traders have isn’t in a bad strategy. It is their impatience and their inability to follow the strategy and its rules. Don’t be naive – trading isn’t easy. It isn’t like you find a Holy Grail strategy and it starts making you money from day one! In fact, you need to learn the strategy, get a feel for it, learn the rules so they feel natural to you and you need to learn to execute the strategy flawlessly. Only then it will all start to work for you. Not before. Obviously, all this takes time. So don’t be impatient. You will learn it and it will all come to you, but you need to give it some time.

If you jump from strategy to strategy you will never have the time to learn anything properly. You won’t be making any consistent profits and trading will become frustrating for you.

What you should do instead, is focus only on one strategy/approach. This strategy needs to make sense to you and you need to feel comfortable trading it.

Tip 8: Switch to a higher timeframe

If you are new to trading and you jumped right to intraday trading, then let me give you an advice. Switch to higher timeframes and start with swing trading first. Intraday trading is simply harder and it may not even be fitting for you. I know it may look tempting to sit in front of your computer 2-3 hours a day, do 20 trades and make a small fortune every day. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t work like that. Most likely you would just over-trade and start losing money quickly.

I was also like that in the past – I wanted to do intraday trading. Unfortunately, I wasn’t really able to make any money with it. I started making money only when I started using the Volume Profile and when I started swing trading. Yes, I started making my first consistent profits with swings! Only after I mastered that did I work my way into intraday trading. Now I trade both – intraday and swing.

So, if you struggle, you don’t necessarily need to change your strategy or methodology. Instead, you probably just need to slow down a bit and switch to higher timeframes.

If you are trading using my Volume Profile strategies, then it is relatively simple as those strategies are versatile enough to work on higher timeframes (like monthly, weekly, daily charts) as well as on the lower timeframes (like hourly to 5-minute charts). You literally just need to change the timeframe and adjust your Profit Target and Stop-loss values.

That’s it!

So that’s about it guys. I know taking a beating and being in drawdown sucks, but it is part of trading. Only the best traders know how to deal with a drawdown properly and more importantly, how to dig out of one. Now you know it too!

How to Keep Drawdown in Forex Under Control

This week’s question comes from Jonathan, who asks:

What’s the best way to keep drawdown low when trading Forex?

If you trade Forex long enough, you will experience a losing streak.

How you cope with it will determine whether or not you have what it takes to become consistently profitable.

The best traders know how to ensure they land softly, while those who struggle tend to crash and burn.

But you know what?

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It’s actually much simpler to avoid the crash and burn scenario than you might think.

The best traders know that losing streaks become magnified when emotions get involved. In order to minimize the damage from a loss, they simply reduce their emotional involvement.

In other words, they don’t feed their emotions.

If you want to learn about losing streaks and drawdowns, including how the best traders handle them, you’re in the right place. I’m even going to share a simple 4-step process to control drawdowns that you can begin using right away.

Read on to learn how you can manage drawdowns like a pro.

What Is Drawdown?

Simply put, drawdown is the reduction of one’s trading capital measured from peak to trough.

So if you grow your account to $100,000 and lose $20,000, the drawdown is 20%.

One thing that often confuses traders is that these losses do not have to be consecutive. In other words, you can have profitable trades and still experience drawdown.

Once your account grows beyond $100,000, a new peak begins and thus resets any subsequent drawdown period.

The 4-Step Process to Control Drawdowns

It’s imperative that you have a defined process in place to control drawdowns. Think of this as the disaster prevention plan for your trading business.

Here’s an outline of how I manage subpar performance when trading Forex.

1. Keep risk as low as possible

What would happen if you lost 20 trades in a row?

Think about that for a moment. Take the percentage you have been risking per trade and multiply it by 20 and see what you get.

If it’s above 100, you have a serious problem.

At some point in your Forex trading career, you’re going to experience a drawdown period. And if you trade long enough, you will experience at least one that is quite severe.

Now, I’m not saying that you will lose 20 trades in a row at some point. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow, much less several months from now.

However, if you aren’t in a position to lose 20 trades in a row and still have remaining capital, you should reconsider your strategy.

So how much of your account balance should you risk per trade?

There’s no universal answer here. It comes down to your tolerance for risk, which only you can determine.

But less than 1% of your balance is a good rule of thumb.

You have probably seen others write about risking 2% or even 3% of your account balance per trade.

If either of those work for you, I say go for it.

As for me, even 2% is too much these days. But again, it depends on your tolerance for risk.

Figure out what 2% of your account balance represents and ask yourself if you are prepared to lose every penny on the next trade—provided it’s a quality setup, of course.

If so, the 2% rule may work for you. Just know that your drawdown will be more severe compared to risking just 1% (or less) of your speculative capital.

2. Reduce risk if losses continue

When you find yourself in a trading slump, you have three choices.

The first is to continue risking the same amount per trade. While this option isn’t the worst of the three, it also isn’t going to help you turn things around.

Option number two is the worst offender. Ironically, it’s also what most Forex traders do in drawdown situations. Instead of maintaining the same level of risk as losses pile up, they try to make back what was lost by increasing their risk.

In the trading world we call this ‘revenge trading’. These traders increase their risk from 2% to 4% (or even higher) in a desperate attempt to recover lost funds.

If you have been doing this, it’s only a matter of time before you blow your account.

The third—and best—option is to reduce your risk per trade with each subsequent loss. This guarantees you a soft landing during a drawdown period, rather than a crash and burn experience.

Once you regain your confidence, you can start increasing the risk per trade back to its original level. This usually occurs after two to four winning trades.

3. Set a drawdown cap

Aside from walking away, which we’ll cover next, this is arguably the most difficult step to follow.

Some months it will feel like the entire market is against you. If you haven’t experienced this already, it’s only a matter of time.

One way to prevent losses from piling up when you’re off your game is to set a weekly or monthly cap. Just like you set your risk per trade, you can establish a drawdown cap.

Here’s an example:

Let’s assume you risk 1% of your account balance on each trade. Using this figure, you could set a cap to stop trading if you’ve reached a 5% drawdown for the month.

That means if you lose 5% or more of account equity, you have to stop trading until the next month begins.

Unless you’ve heard of something similar before, that may sound pretty harsh. I mean, what if you hit that within the second week of the month?

You got it—you stop trading until the new month begins.

Of course, you can always modify a rule like this to better fit your style. Instead of waiting until the next month to begin, you could make it the next week.

Either way, this type of rule is incredibly powerful. Not only does it help you avoid the crash and burn scenario, but it also forces you to be more selective about the setups you pursue.

4. If all else fails, walk away

As Forex traders, we have to pick and choose our battles.

Day in and day out we’re at the mercy of the markets. Sure, we can choose the setups we take, including exit points and the amount we risk, but the price action is out of our hands.

But there is one thing we can control every single time…

Whether or not we act.

If things aren’t going your way, you can simply take a break from trading. That’s an incredibly powerful position to be in, yet so few traders take advantage of it.

When faced with a drawdown situation, most traders feel the need to try harder. They want to make back what they just lost as fast as possible.

But the Forex market has a way of pushing back. The harder you try, the more the market resists. And at more than $5 trillion per day in volume, the market always wins.

If losses continue to mount even after reducing your risk and perhaps even your trading frequency, just walk away. Spend time with your family or play your favorite sport. Whatever you choose, just make sure to stay away from your charts.

After a few days or even a full week off, come back to your charts. You’ll be amazed at how a brief hiatus from trading can help you bounce back from a losing streak.

Final Words

Taking losses is part of trading. It’s a necessary business expense that must be endured in order to find profitable trade ideas.

Just like any business, expenses need to be controlled. But unlike most, the expenses associated with Forex trading are not on a set schedule.

Some months will be great, others mediocre. Then you have months where everything you do goes wrong. It’s time like this when controlling drawdowns is absolutely critical to your success.

Without a defined process in place for how you will handle drawdowns, your emotions are free to run wild. Instead of lowering risk after a loss or two, you’ll be tempted to make back what was lost by increasing leverage.

Don’t make that mistake. It’s far better to lower risk in drawdown periods, and even walk away if you have to, in order to maintain discipline and keep emotions at bay.

By doing this, you satisfy the number one rule of being a trader, which is to protect your capital at all times.

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To do that, I need your help.

Here’s what you can do to get involved and have your question answered in next week’s post:

  1. Ask questions. Post them in the comments below or Tweet them to me @JustinBennettFX
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Leave a Comment:

24 comments

Thanks a lot for sharing lots of insight…
I’ve a question that, if I want to analyse & trade only one market, whether it be stock, commodity or forex, will it be right approach focusing on only one market? off course I consider this with some comfortable trade set up & proper money management system with strong discipline.

Tnx Justin i jst wrote down all notes so i kip chcking dem as alwys as possible if i start loosing it.����

Hi there, when trading the 4 hour chart, what is the best lower timeframe to look at to enter a trade.

Am back from a break

Justin, first of all i will thank you for your countless assistance for young traders and me. you really make me understand that what made me a trader is not to have a deposit in my trading platform but to have sense of managing my risk bcus is what keeps me on in trading. Good work my friend!

i make tangible money consistently in my demo account does that imply that i will make good money in my live account?

Making money in a demo account does not guarantee that when you put money on a live account your going to profit consistently, 90% of forex trading is about emotions, demo account is not your money at stick, you can leave the trade open for about a month without any emotion involved, but when it come to live account my brother it another story completely

Very true Enoch. Demo is good for strategies and knowing how to trade consistently.

Live trading is all about emotions the psychological part of trading.

Many traders do well on demo only to crumble on live accounts.

It helps to read books about trading psychology and money management.

Trading live will take years to be good at because real money hard earned money is on the line.

Learning price action and having a trading plan can help with discipline and patience to only take the best set ups!

Not necessarily. In the demo account, there is no emotional attachment unlike the live where you are afraid of losing.

excellent article Justin, you covered all points well, thank you!

Great Piece, thanks for your insight. Want what the markets wants. cheers!

Often times while reviewing other trader’s ideas and setups I notice that the chart they post is not identical to mine. Specifically; they may post a 4 hour EURUSD chart, and the candles do NOT match my candles even though we are both using the same chart package, currency pair, time frame etc… What is going on? How can MOST of the candles be identical, but several have different opens, closes, or even ranges?

So frustrated don’t even what to do or what to ask .
Have a small account of $1000 and already down 50%
How can you help? Thanks!

The mindset people approach the market with is the leading cause of there failure,most of the new people who dive into forex realise that forex is not easy as it sounds so brother the best advice I can give you is leave the live account for now. Get educational aspect of it when you are done try you strategy on a demo account when it works you can come back to your live trade

First, review how you got to a 50pct dd then correct. Next, reduce your lot size to as low as 0.01 then pick up gradually.

Seems to me that risk is inversely related to timescale of trading. So while 2% of trade might be appropriate for 1 or 5 minute minute time frame, trading on the daily weekly or monthly time frame might require something like 10% of bank as the risk. It might be better on a longer time frame to divide the bank into three parts, and trade one part compounded until it halves or doubles.. If one trades on trend on a daily timeframe, using all major indicators and their combinations one might get three good trades in a week, or perhaps less, but the risk of a losing daily timeframe trade with longer timeframes confirming trend and using heiken ashi candles with exit on one reversing colour candle can be less than 50% and will decrease with skill and use of confirming indicators such as volume weighted moving averages, or for the more cautious the parabolic indicator family

can you also talk about how to evaluate if a market is overextended?

Dear Sir,
how can i find out resistant & support label. please help me sir.

your faithfully
hiru

1) Select a pair that is not very volatile. I choose AUD/CAD.
2) Day trader must be able to calculate the relative strengths of numerator and denominator and must be able to predict if the pair will look up or down today.
3) Control lot size. For AUD/CAD, I choose USD 2,600 of Equity per lot while buying and USD 2,000 per lot while selling.
4) It will be nice to be able to predict the high & low for the pair. Also the high zone and the low zone.
5) If you have made sufficient profit close down for the day.
6) One trade a day. Set it and forget it.

Thanks a lot. You are a great teacher.

IS THE MOVEMENT IN FOREX MARKET PURELY ON DEMAND SUPPLY BASIS OR THERE IS A SCOPE FOR MANUPLATION

Well…there are some levels of manipulation largely from the broker most times and some big wigs….

Thanks and God bless.

Doesn’t lowering risk during DD not allow you to be on correct position size to make back those losses when the wins come?

I looked at this before, If I were to not trade the following week after a losing week, that could be the winning week that would gain you back..

So you if traded that week at a lower risk because you cut size due to DD then the system wouldn’t make back all of its losses.

Could you please help shine some light on this, thank you.

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